Impending Conflict on the South China Sea

Impending Conflict on the South China Sea

The United States and China have a long, complicated history and although it’s no secret

that China owns $1.5 trillion worth of US Treasury bills, Americans may need to start viewing

China as a security threat as well as an economic one. Southeast Asia could very well become

the center of conflict in the 21st century for a number of reasons. To begin with, the South

China Sea is rich in natural resources and China depends on the open seas for a majority of

their international trade. Since joining the WTO, trade with other nations now affects 60-70

percent of the Chinese economy (Cheng). Because trade has become so vital to China’s

economy, they are now more vulnerable to outside forces. That risk has caused them to

increase their military force to enable them to defend their trade interests. Although this

militarization may stem simply from a need to protect their economic interests, other states

have seen it as a threat. The US has increased their influence in the region to maintain a

balance of power but the conflict is escalating quickly.

Territorial disputes are also a major source of conflict in the region. While many of the

states along the South China Sea make territorial claims in the area, China “lays claim to the

heart of the South China Sea in a grand loop from China's Hainan Island at the South China

Sea's northern end all the way south 1,200 miles to near Singapore and Malaysia” (Kaplan 3).

Smaller states are therefore forced to rely on the United States for military and diplomatic

support.

China has been steadily increasing their naval powers and there’s no doubt that the US has

taken notice. “They have tested long-range ballistic missiles that could be used against aircraft

carriers, developed a sophisticated submarine fleet, and confirmed that they intend to deploy

an aircraft carrier group within a few years” (Axe). There is little to indicate a threat to U.S.

security but nevertheless, a response is necessary. Dean Cheng firmly states that, “America

must sustain a strong set of maritime forces” and at the same time, “training must be

strengthened, and in some cases, revived.”

The question now becomes, how should the United States react to Chinese military

expansion? According to Cheng, the answer involves a series of military developments.

Realism defines this as the balance-of-power theory which refers to when “one or more states’

power is being used to balance that of another state or group of states” (Goldstein 52). In this

case, the US is increasing their military strength to balance that of China’s and maintain

stability in Southeast Asia. This entire conflict challenges the liberalist theory that trade is a

stabilizing force because nations which depend on raw material imports are more insecure and

more likely to militarize. Although neither the US or China wants to go to war, it seems as if

militarization is inevitable because both parties need to protect themselves.

The US has already made their first response by deciding to permanently station one or

two of the new Littoral Combat Ships in Singapore. Although the Navy has maintained a

support facility there for years, the Littoral Combat Ships will be the first ever US military

vessel to permanently reside in Singapore. Its apparent that “The US Navy is meeting China’s

naval expansion with an expansion of its own (Axe). If the United States continues this model

we could very well see further expansion of their naval and air force power in response to

China’s.

The United States undoubtably needs to maintain a presence in Southeast Asia to protect

their national interests but military power may not be the only way to approach the situation.

Asian states depend on the U.S. to provide maritime security and therefore they have strong

ties to the region. Much of the conflict could be resolved through diplomatic means if regional

meetings and conferences continue.

Works Cited

Axe, David. "US Eyes Singapore Base." The Diplomat 26 Sep. 2011. 6 June 2011 <http://the-diplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2011/06/06/us-eyes-singapore-base/>.

Cheng, Dean. "Sea Power and the Chinese State: China’s Maritime Ambitions." 25 Sep. 2011. The Heritage Foundation. 11 July 2011 <http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/07/sea-power-and-the-chinese-state-chinas-maritime-ambitions>.

Goldstein, Joshua , and Jon C. Pevehouse. International Relations. New York: Longman, 2010.

Kaplan, Robert D. "The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict." Foreign Policy Magazine 23 Sep. 2011. September 2011 <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/the_south_china_sea_is_the_future_of_conflict?page=0,1>.

Traub, James. "Over the Horizon." Foreign Policy Magazine 23 Sep. 2011. 2 Sep. 2011 <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/02/over_the_horizon?page=0,0

Wong, Edward. "Chinese Military Seeks to Extend Its Naval Power." The New York Times 25 Sep. 2011. 23 Apr. 2010 <http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/24/world/asia/24navy.html?pagewanted=all>.