Causes and Consequences of the Arab Spring: Libya, Egypt & Syria

I have to admit, I did not really get into the Arab Spring. Sure, I watched the news and read news articles every now and then, but that’s about it. Yes, I know it is ignorant, and I probably should have taken more time to learn about what was going on, but I didn’t. It is definitely an issue that we discuss all of the time, and something that I am unable to contribute to due to my lack of knowledge. For that reason, I decided to go to a discussion on the Arab Spring led by Professor Josef Olmert in order to learn a little bit more about it. He focused on the causes and consequences, paying special attention to Libya, Egypt and Syria. Although the discussion was on the Arab Spring, Professor Olmert did not actually touch on the actual revolutions but on how they were caused and their effects. He also found many contradictions to common beliefs of the Arab Spring and predicted different outcomes for the Middle East.

Professor Olmert began by discussing the movement as a whole. He quickly pointed out that eruptions of this kind definitely are not new to the Middle East and can be compared to Pan-Arabism and Nasserism He furthers by arguing that movements in the past have had a larger impact on the region than those of the Arab Spring. Perhaps the only reason that the Pan-Arabism Movements did not last was because there were not strong enough foundations laid to continue to change the Middle East.

Furthermore, Nasser opposes the claim that the implementation and affects of social networking have had a unique impact on the Arab Spring that has never been applicable before. Many argue that social networking has allowed for a newer and quicker type of communication in a warzone. Although somewhat valid, Professor Olmert pointed out that social networking was also used during the time of Nasserism. At the time, the radio was the only social networking source that the world new, and it was used widely during the conflicts. Nasser used the radio to reach large groups of people and inform them of current events, just as Facebook or Twitter does today. He also pointed out that music was a way to portray messages to the people. Songs were written by revolutionaries that used music to spread information about the revolutions. In this case, the radio and music were simplified versions of current social networks, but they were definitely the social networks of the day.

Professor Olmert continued by discussing a couple of the causes of the Arab Spring. He claimed that one possible predicator of the Arab Spring was actually by the actions of the UN. In an effort to involve the Middle East in peacekeeping and prevention on conflict, they appointed 200 Arab political scientists and economists to a committee that analyzed Arab conflict. They later issued a report predicting the conflicts of the Arab Spring. He believed that the community should have been ready for the Arab Spring if they had read this report and taken it seriously. Furthermore, he noted that the Arab Spring was not caused by an Arab-Israeli conflict, but more so that the people lived in oppression and poverty. He also noted that some are worried that the Arab Spring will lead to the rise in Islamic governments which could be bad for the Western World.

Although the lecture was about the causes and effects of the Arab Spring, Professor Olmert focused on Libya, Egypt and Syria as models. He began by giving factual background on Libya, noting that Gaddafi began his rule on September 1, 1969. Because he never held any form of legitimate rule, he tried to do whatever to keep the people happy and tried to form a sense of community in the country. As a result of his oppressive rule, the people finally decided to revolt. Professor Olmert predicts that Libya will remain unstable because there are still too many problems that have been unresolved. He believes that the governmet needs to be restructured completely because for the past 40 years the country has only known a government with a dictator.

During the Egyptian revolts against Mubarak, it was a common belief that the success was due to the determination of the people. However, Professor Olmert argues that the people were not successful at all. The reason that Mubarak was defeated was through the work of his generals who wanted the power for themselves. Furthermore, he predicts that the country won’t really change. He discussed the three stages of the election process which is run by the military. If they do not favor the way that the election is tuning in one stage, they can easily shift the elections in their favor for the next election period.

Lastly, he focused on Syria. Like Egypt, Syria was ruled by an illegitimate regime that created a strong military and an acceptable economy to please the people. They did so in an effort to prevent the people from resisting. They also tried to accept the rights of all the people to keep them happy. In the end, however, Syrians still revolted and Professor Olmert predicts the disintegration will continue to occur until serious reform takes place.

Lastly, Professor Olmert touched on two very interesting points concerning the Arab Spring as a whole. He briefly discussed the importance of nonviolence in the movement. Professor Olmert believes that there was violence and that the Arab Spring would have failed if there wasn’t any violence. He stated that to expect a situation without violence means no change in a regime. He also argued that if people were desperate enough for change they would eaily turn to violence. Perhaps his most noteworthy point was that everyone views democracy differently. Therefore, countries such as the U.S. may perceive success in the Middle East differently than people in the region do. They will support Muslim influence in governments while the U.S. probably won’t. For this reason, it will be difficult to actually ever determine whether the Arab Spring was a success.

I found the discussion by Professor Josef Olmert to be very enlightening. He not only opened my eyes to what has went on in the Middle East, but what he believes the future will bring. I enjoyed hearing his unique take on the causes and consequences of the Arab Spring, especially since they went against most of what I had researched before attending his lecture.