After so many years of trying to get back on its feet, the Democratic Republic of Congo is preparing itself for its second round of national elections in the last five years. The Brookings Institute held a talk and panel discussion on Friday, October 14, to dialogue about the feasibility of these elections happening on time, and if they do, if they will be as free, fair and transparent as possible. The speakers to open the talk were Under Secretary of State Maria Otero and Senior Fellow and Director of Research Michael O’Hanlon, and the panelists were Distinguished Visiting Fellow Mvemba Dizolele, Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution John Mukum Mbaku, and Independent Consultant and Former USAID Mission Director to the DRC Anthony W. Gambino, with Mr. O’Hanlon moderating the discussion. Overall, this was a fantastic discussion and I came away understanding much more about how important the outcome of these elections will be for the DRC.
The biggest problem discussed by the panel was if the DRC was going to be ready for a national election by election day, November 28th, just next month. Mr. Gambino made a point of noting that the DRC has not even received the ballot boxes it needs for the election, which are being ordered from China. Also, there are literally 19,000 candidates up for election for various national positions that all have to be on the ballot. This in itself is a daunting task for any nation to handle properly and efficiently. The ballots are yet to be made, not to mention the candidates haven’t all been contacted to make sure they are even real, living people. Voter registration has also been a problem in preparing for these elections. Voter fraud is prevalent and hard to decipher unless someone is to go through the voter list and audit it, which will be another long process and stumbling block to the elections happening as scheduled.
With so many candidates and so few means of trans-national communication, little information has been spread regarding any of the candidates’ platforms. The panel brought up how at this point, most Congolese “just want change” for the better. The list of problems that need to be addressed by those elected includes security, gender inequality, education reform, and job creation. The actual elections, if they are to take place when they’re supposed to, are another set of problems entirely. A good portion of the DRC’s voting population is illiterate; the further one travels into rural areas, the more illiterate the population tends to be. So, not only do ballots need to be printed, they will need to be created in such a way that illiterate voters can make an educated vote like literate voters can. There also needs to be ways of getting people out to the 62,000 polling places that will be available to voters come November 28th, because the DRC’s road system is almost non-existent, and often, little transportation is available for people in rural areas to get to the polling places. Lastly, people need to feel secure when going to and from casting their votes, so proper security is another issue that needs to be addressed before the elections.
Now, while this talk made me feel almost hopeless, there was one point that the panelists clung onto that gave me some hope for these elections. That point was that a peaceful state is possible, and it can be achieved through a fair, transparent government and dialogue between the Congolese people. The Congo was not established as a consensual state, and therefore it needs to be restructured to represent its people. Even if the elections are pushed back indefinitely, the state might benefit from the delay because it will give officials more time to make sure the elections will be secure, fair, and that they will segue to a government that is transparent and works for the betterment of its people.
The panelists concluded that the bottom line is that the Congolese people need to be the decision-makers in deciding what their country will be like after five years as a result of these upcoming elections, whether they happen on time or not. If they can eventually elect a government that is willing to facilitate this dialogue, they said, the Democratic Republic of Congo will be well on its way to recovery and perhaps even prosperity in the future.
Trying to coordinate a vote in this situation sounds very difficult. Do you think they will end up pushing the vote back or will they try to make it the same? Also is the Congo broken up into regions? It seems to me that it might be beneficial to hold regional elections at first which would then provide a stepping stone and trial run in ensuring fair voting practices. Would this be possible? Also you mentioned that a good majority of the population was illiterate it would seem like the only way to count their votes would be to have them vote orally if they are unable to read a ballot and decipher the candidates names. Finally you began by saying that it was important to have their vote be as free, fair and transparent as possible. With these conditions what do you think that will look like and what level of success do you think this vote will bring to Congo?
ReplyDeleteGood overview, Steph!
ReplyDeleteHas the DCR received any international assistance in attempting to coordinate these elections? If so, what is your opinion on the value of this assistance?
I agree with Jas that coordinating this situation sounds very complicated, based on numbers and lack of information. Do you think the situation could be become one of a "bandwagon effect"? That perhaps the candidates who are able to get even minimal information out there would win, because their names would become slightly recognizable? What is your opinion on the risk in this situation?
One last thing! Did you go into this panel with any preconceived notions about the elections? Did the panel support, or even change, any of your ideas?
Alright, the long response I just typed got completely deleted, so I'll try to keep this one short...
ReplyDeleteJas- I think they will end up pushing back the vote, and honestly I hope they do, without riots or any kind of violence. The Congo is not broken up by region, nor does it have strong local government, but I do believe that if the next regime that comes in is effective and sees the need for local government in order to better keep peace, have better elections and address local issues, I would advocate it strongly. The last Congolese election was in 2006, and the method for addressing illiterate voters was improptu: they had standby readers assist illiterate voters cast their ballots. This is dangerous and could compromise the accuracy of the vote because the illiterate voter's ballot completely relies on what the reader tells them it says. In a few cases, one of the panelists who observed the elections said he say some of the readers mark the ballots for the voters. Not good. For the next election, the panelists said that the ballots will have a picture of each candidate, with their party's logo, next to the respective candidate's name, so that illiterate voters can cast their votes on their own. I think a vote that is as "free, fair and transparent as possible", as one of the panelists liked to put it, would mean high security during and after elections when the results are released, a monitored vote counting, and accessibility to polling places so as to facilitate a greater voter turnout and discourage blocs.
Caroline- Yes, the DRC has been aided by the United States for many years, in addition to aid from other countries like the UK. In this particular election, the US is training DRC troops to provide strong security at polling places and in the streets so that voters feel safe when casting their ballots and to prevent riots or other types of political violence in reaction to the election results. I do believe that the "bandwagon effect" has a very realistic possibility of happening in this election, and I think that everyone honestly has to just cross their fingers that those who do get "bandwagoned" into office will do the job right. Hopefully, the next regime will address the issues of communication of candidates' platforms and the overwhelming amount of candidates on the ballots in order to allow more educated voting. Finally, yes I did go into this panel with preconceived notions. Developing states are notorious for having failed attempts at democratic elections which often send the states back into a cycle of violent anarchy and such. The panelists confirmed many of my pessimistic views on the way this election could turn out, but did help me understand how the elections COULD turn out if done right the first time. Hope I answered your questions!
Reading your paper, I couldn’t help but feel like the challenge that the Congolese people are facing is nearly insurmountable. I find it amazing that any country can get itself together when faced with challenges of that magnitude… If the elections are pushed back, do you think that there will be violence or riots? I know you said that you hope there won’t be, but what is the likelihood that it will occur anyway? And since the DCR wasn’t established as a consensual state, and is not divided into regions, do you think that tensions among different groups will lead to problems with the elections or violence?
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